Kenya’s recently published ‘HIV Prevention Revolution Road Map – Count Down to 2030‘ presents various HIV data for each of the 47 counties, based on their new constitution. National prevalence is estimated at 6%, 1.6 million people (compared to 5% in the latest Aids Indicator Survey). But instead of getting rough data for each of the 8 provinces, it is now possible to see just how heterogeneous the country’s epidemic is.
Prevalence ranges from a very low .2% in Wajir to a massive 25.7% in Homa Bay, 128.5 times higher. The estimated number of people living with HIV in Wajir is 500, compared to 140,600 in Homa Bay, 281 times higher. Of course, people can work that out for themselves. But try working out how the situation in these counties can be so different if you also believe that HIV is almost always transmitted through sex.
Because that is the conclusion of the experts who put together this research. The contribution made by Homa Bay alone is said to be roughly the same as the contribution of sex workers plus their clients in the country. Over 60% of new infections are said to be a result of the sexual behavior of the populations of 9 counties, making up less than a quarter of the population. In contrast, the 10 lowest incidence counties are said to contribute 1% of all infections, through their sexual behavior, of course.
It is now claimed that 93.7% of all new cases of HIV are sexually transmitted. Only 20% of the hundreds of millions of dollars being pumped into the epidemic is to be spent on prevention, and most of that will be spent on condoms, finger wagging and a lot of other rubbish that has failed to have any influence on the epidemic so far. And yet it is expected to reduce transmission to about 1000 cases by 2030.
One of the most disturbing aspects of the report is a photograph that sums up the attitude of UNAIDS and other big players in the HIV industry (a lot of drugs are being sold through reports like this) towards Kenyans and other Africans. It depicts a crowned ‘King of Condoms’, with a paper crown on his head, demonstrating to the country’s first lady how to put a condom on a wooden dildo, while others look on.
Or perhaps others don’t see that as an instance of crass infantilization? Perhaps they don’t find anything questionable about the idea that HIV is transmitted almost entirely through sexual behavior in African countries? But the assumption is based on an entirely flawed ‘Modes of Transmission’ spreadsheet, rather than on research. Thirty years into the epidemic, with next to nothing to show for the billions that have been spent on prevention, shouldn’t we start collecting empirical data to guide future efforts?